> Ok update on state of the art as I perceived it:
> 512 Bit being broken may be 2000
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> transistors are still rising fast and multicores are multiplying like
> rabbits.
Even so, Moore's law states a doubling of price-effectivness every eighteen
months, so over the last twelve years, eight more bits. Comparatively, I see
no point in going beyond 128bits for symmetric keys, because a modern
computer cannot even count to 2^64 in a practical amount of time. A 4Ghz
computer could do 2^32 in one second. The other thirty-two bits amount to
four billion seconds. It's a total wonder that multiplication instructions
only take five cycles on a 32bit machine. So, it is no wonder that the U.S.
government was (or is) suppressing export of symmetric crypto beyond 56bits.
> I doubt that it will take another 10 years for 1024Bit to be broken ...
> I would rather not bet my momey on any date after 2015...
>
> Christian
Zimmerman himself would not predict his art beyond a decade.
Christian - 06 Mar 2010 18:53 GMT
Am 06.03.2010 08:04, schrieb Bohgosity BumaskiL:
>> Ok update on state of the art as I perceived it:
>> 512 Bit being broken may be 2000
[quoted text clipped - 18 lines]
> only take five cycles on a 32bit machine. So, it is no wonder that the U.S.
> government was (or is) suppressing export of symmetric crypto beyond 56bits.
primary reason for this as history has shown: they were able to decrypt
56Bit DES simple BruteForce with dedicated hardware made it possible...
doing things in pure hardware / using SIMD processors (graphics cards
for example have them)
my main reason for going not beyond 128 Bit AES in symmetric keys would
rather be that 128Bit is considered more secure than the higher bit
variants currently (at least if you trust in the opinion of Bruce
Schneier for example).
Though reason for this all is also why your assmuption is kind of
unreasonable:
The cryptographic algorithms we are usually using i.e. RSA , AES (, SHA-1)
are broken ...
sure they are only broken on a theoretical level still needing more
computing power than available.. but they all have shown weaknesses
making them attackable under certain conditions...
And history indicates that after a cryptographic primitive gets broken
on theoretical level its rather a question of several years not a
question of several decades until its broken on a practical level.
>> I doubt that it will take another 10 years for 1024Bit to be broken ...
>> I would rather not bet my momey on any date after 2015...
>>
>> Christian
>
> Zimmerman himself would not predict his art beyond a decade.
I bet.. I would not predict.. cryptography is on having some buffer
space between whats currently breakable and what you use... 1024 already
lacks this space with 768 Bit having been broken..
In 2003!!! 7 years ago Shamir published a paper how one could for 10
Million $ build a device(TWIRL) that could break 1024Bit keys within a
year..
so with priceeffectiveness doubling every 18 Months we would be at 40k$
for cracking a RSA key within a year by 2015 (more than half a million
currently -> money a secret service should have i.e. throwing in some
more money to break RSA 1024 bit within a week should already be in the
range of non fiction...)
Though I actually lack the knowledge on cryptography i.e. not folowing
what papers are published.. so this here might all be fiction/inaccurate..
IANAC
...
Christian